Well, Reppert responded, "VR: How in blazes do you calculate probabilities?"There actually is a method for this, it's called statistics. It's been well demonstrated; physics, chemistry, medicine, etc. use it all the time (they report things like error bars and "p" numbers and such).As far as prior probabilities? Yes, you certainly can insert any number there you want, but to be a truly realistic analysis (one that makes accurate, testable predictions), that number must be based on the data to date (that's an explicit assumption in the analysis).So, a prior probability for a resurrection? If we base it on the data (how many claims of resurrections there were vs. demonstrated resurrections)...? No wonder Reppert wants it to seem impossible to conceive of.
This is a popular infidel
objection. I’ve discussed it before, but I’ll expand a bit on what’s wrong with
it.
One problem is that atheists
have a habit of reading rather than thinking. They read other atheists, but
they don’t stop to evaluate what they’ve read. They just repeat it.
And this is because, if
you’re already convinced that a position is wrong, that predisposes you to
agree with arguments that try to disprove the position. You’re not inclined to
scrutinize arguments in opposition to a position you think is wrong. You’re automatically
sympathetic to an argument attacking a position you think is wrong.
Needless to say, the rarity
of the Resurrection tells us nothing about its probability, for it’s not like a
naturally occurring event (or machine), which, if it occurs at all, occurs more
than once. Indeed, at predictable intervals. As long as the initial conditions
are in place, it happens all by itself–just like clockwork.
Rather, it’s a question of
whether God had a reason to raise someone from the dead at that particular time
and place. How that fits into an overarching plan.
Let’s take an illustration. I
graduated from high school in 1978. Yes, I know. That proves the creationist
contention that men and dinosaurs once coexisted.
In all the intervening years
(over 34!), I’ve been back to my high school just once. Once in about 12,530
days.
So by this wooden atheistic
methodology, it’s highly unlikely that I ever revisited my high school. And by
the same token, it’s scarcely credible than I ever revisited my high school. It
would take extraordinary evidence to overcome the crushing presumption that I never
revisited my high school. The odds are stacked against it!
But, of course, that’s a
preposterous way of weighing the likelihood that I ever returned to my alma
mater. For the probability that I went back there turns on the probability that
I had a reason for going back. And the reason I had for going back once is the
same reason I had for not going back more than once.
I revisited my high school 11
years after I graduated. And why is that? Well, I’d been to my 10th
high school reunion a year before. There were actually three events. I only
went to the last one, which turned out to be sparsely attended. There I ran
into a student I knew from junior high and high school. And, of course, that’s
the point of attending your high school reunion.
Anyway, that got me thinking
that maybe I should brush up on my old classmates. I hadn’t bothered to buy a
yearbook at the time, so I decided to pay a visit to the school library and
look at their copy, to refresh my recollection. I even made some photocopies.
Having satisfied my
curiosity, having got the information I needed, there was no further reason to
go back there. It’s as simple as that.
The atheist talks about
probabilities in physics, chemistry, &c. But, of course, that’s the wrong
frame of reference. Chemical reactions don’t have reasons for reacting as they
do. The Resurrection isn’t like a cuckoo clock which runs through the same musical
routine every hour on the hour. Rational agents have reasons for what they do
or refrain from doing. Frequency is irrelevant. We build machines to delegate routine chores.
Here we have an atheist who’s
obviously so pleased with himself, yet he hasn’t got a clue.
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