Wednesday, March 11, 2020

Sense of scale

I'm no expert, but when I see some people comparing the coronavirus to the Spanish influenza, a sense of proportion has been lost. Here's one way I think about it:

i) Total world population: 7.7 billion

ii) National population totals (10s-100s of millions or more)

iii) Fractional subtotal of those infected

iv) Fractional sub-subtotal of infected who naturally recover

v) Fractional sub-subtotal of those requiring hospitalization

It's a serious problem when hospitals are overwhelmed, but in terms of the relative scale of the body count, aren't some doomsdayers losing a sense of proportion? That's not to make light of the body count, but in terms of historical comparisons and realistic projections...

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