Some hard truths about the coronavirus

The behavior of people fighting over toilet paper reminds me of the words of Jesus: “For if people do these things when the tree is green, what will happen when it is dry?" God help us if we have to fight over anti-viral meds.

— Michael F. Bird (@mbird12) March 8, 2020

1. I think Bird makes a good point. As I've said in the past, how people are responding to the coronavirus is a bit more disconcerting to me than the coronavirus itself. Not that the coronavirus isn't a threat, but how people behave can sometimes make things worse.

2. It doesn't help that some "experts" fan the flames. They're contributing to unnecessary alarm.

3. Panicking is irrational. There's no need to shout at each other and fight over toilet paper and hand sanitizer. Certainly not at this point. If, however, something like this happens, then I'll admit it may be time to panic.

4. That said, we shouldn't be carefree about the coronavirus either. Here are some hard truths, at least as I see them, but obviously people should always fact-check everything for themselves:

a. For all intents and purposes, coronavirus is a pandemic. It's in our nation. It's in many other nations. It's global. It's gone viral (forgive the pun).

b. It'll get worse before it'll get better. That is, coronavirus will only continue to spread. So we should expect to hear ever-increasing numbers of those infected with coronavirus. In fact, I expect a rapid and sharp increase in these numbers, especially as medical facilities begin to test more. And unfortunately I'd expect more deaths too.

c. The elderly and/or those with serious underlying health conditions are the groups at highest risk of both contracting the coronavirus and becoming seriously ill from it as well as dying. We have to help them, protect them, take extra precautions for them.

But others who are not in these groups have less to worry about. That's not to imply they're immune, of course; there have been younger people who have died. But one can calibrate anxiety levels accordingly. In short, everyone should always be vigilant with their own and their family's health, but be reasonable too.

On this note, I'm a bit surprised some Christians are thinking about the coronavirus like the rest of the world. Surely we believe God is in control? Surely we believe this life is not all there is?

d. There may well be dramatic changes in society. Businesses may close. Schools may close. People may not be able to see as many movies or attend as many concerts. Public events may be canceled. Dogs and cats may start living together.

In short, people will begin to enact social distancing measures. So it may feel like it's tumbleweeds and ghost towns, but looks can be deceptive. People aren't gone. Rather more people are staying indoors at home. Not going out all the time like before. (However, if you want cheap flights and accommodations in an exotic locale, maybe this is a good time to travel! But I kid.)

e. Hopefully social distancing measures will predominantly be enacted on a voluntary basis. After all, we're a free people. We're not a totalitarian government like China that can mandate draconian measures (e.g. welding people inside buildings). At least we won't be if we keep our heads.

However, if we collectively lose our heads as a society, then things could spiral out of control. Such as if enough people panic and fight one another over items like toilet paper. Such as if this turns into rioting and looting. If things begin to spiral out of control, then I could see harsher measures being taken by the gov't. Yet even still we have resources to curtail tyranny unlike other places in the world.

f. Right now there is no specific treatment for coronavirus. If it's mild (like the vast majority of coronavirus cases are), then it's recommended to self-isolate at home. If it's severe enough to be hospitalized, then it's isolation rooms, supportive care, management of symptoms. Bed rest, maintenance of caloric intake, hydration status, oxygenation if needed (e.g. nasal cannula, oxygen mask, high flow nasal cannula), and so on. Intensive care units for the very worst.

g. Antivirals won't be here until next year at the earliest. Many private companies and the gov't are working on their antiviral drug, but most these drugs are still in preclinical development stages (e.g. animal testing). Some are in clinical trials (e.g. testing on a small group of people). I posted about that in the past. But even at a best-case scenario antivirals are still many months away. Assuming they even succeed. And health care workers will likely be prioritized to get antivirals over the general population.

5. All that said, we already know what to do. Simple things. Things that don't cost much or don't cost anything. Like:

• We should regularly wash our hands. Not just our palms and fingers, but in-between our fingers, our thumbs, and our wrists too. Hand sanitizers are fine, but washing with soap and water is better.
• We should limit touching our faces because viruses can more easily travel from our hands and enter our bodies through our eyes, nose, mouths.
• We should isolate ourselves at home if we're sick.
• We should consider others. Try not to get others sick (e.g. cough and sneeze into your elbow rather than onto your hands).
• We should keep a reasonable distance (at least a few feet) from those who are sick or those we might get sick if we are sick.
• We should stock up with some basic supplies, but not necessarily stockpile. Keep it all reasonable. I presume most people shop once or twice per week. So, instead, buy enough supplies for a few weeks or a month. That includes some basic food items, water, medical supplies like drugs, diapers if you have babies. I've already talked a bit about this in the past.

6. For more information, I largely agree with what Dr. Scott Gottlieb said here. He lays out what we should do and what we should expect quite well. The coronavirus is dire in a lot of ways, but it's not the end of the world (at least not yet!).

If enough people take the kinds of recommended measures Gottlieb is suggesting, then it's plausible to stem the tide of the coronavirus' spread. If we can quell its transmission from person to person to person, then even the most sobering predictions based on exponential growth in epidemics aren't likely to come to pass.