Monday, January 23, 2012

Newt now leads in Florida polls

http://blogs.wsj.com/washwire/2012/01/23/gingrich-takes-the-lead-in-florida-polls/

A poll by Rasmussen Reports of likely GOP primary voters taken Sunday, a day after Mr. Gingrich’s decisive win in South Carolina, showed Mr. Gingrich with 41% support, Mr. Romney with 32%, Rick Santorum, 11%, and Rep. Ron Paul, 8%. The survey, with a margin of error of four percentage points, also showed that 9% of likely voters remain undecided a little more than a week ahead of the Jan. 31 primary.
An Insider Advantage poll for Newsmax showed similar results, with Mr. Gingrich ahead by eight percentage points. Mr. Gingrich drew the support of 34% of the registered Republicans polled, while Mr. Romney had 26%.  Mr. Paul had the support of 13% and Mr. Santorum, 11%.

Just the other day I was mentioning that Romney is still ahead in Florida. It's still too early to say Newt will win the nomination. Romney's got a lot of money and organization, and Newt has a very long "paper trail" in many respects. But "momentum" has an inertia all its own in politics, and if Newt wins in Florida, it's hard to see Romney making a comeback.

16 comments:

  1. A remarkable turn of events.

    Newt's toughest opponent isn't Romney or Obama. Newt's toughest opponent is Newt.

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  2. I'm not crazy about Newt or Mitt. Nor was I pleased with McCain in 2008.

    But I still voted for McCain in 2008 because Obama was worse.

    Of the main 4 GOP contenders left, I'd rather have Santorum win the nomination.

    That's the "remarkable turn of events" that I'd like to see.

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  3. Some 44% of evangelicals voted for Newt, far more than Ron Paul and Santorum combined. It seems as if Paul and Santorum are going to stay in just in case Newt implodes. But I think we are too far into it now -- and Newt is a student of history, as well as being "an idea guy". I think he'll instinctively know how to handle himself from here out.

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  4. Hi Truth -- Really, anything can happen. Huckabee did well in the South last time, but nowhere else. It still remains to be seen if Gingrich can do well in the Northeast or Midwest.

    Romney has a good organization Nevada; that may make some news between now and "Super Tuesday".

    I think the possibility of a Gingrich/Santorum ticket is a very live possibility at this point. Of course, a Romney/Santorum ticket also seems possible.

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  5. Whats this shows, is that moral issues are no longer important to Republicans.

    Character doesn't matter.

    Its all about the economy.

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  6. Emanuel: it's all about winning.

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  7. "Emanuel: it's all about winning."

    Exactly and that sums up my experience in the church, which I understand does not mean anything but I just wanted to say I agree with you. All that aside and far more important I am glad your wife is doing better.

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  8. Morrison, I recognize your name, but I haven't quite seen enough of you to know what it is that you're trying to prove.

    Maybe you're a Ron Paul fan. It's the Ron Paul fans here who are all sour grapes.

    A presidential election is all about winning, at the most important level. Ron Paul may be a nice, decent Christian guy who wants government to leave everybody alone.

    But the government is not going to leave you alone. The best that you can hope for is that somebody on your side is in power more than somebody on the other side. Then the folks on your side get to implement their policies.

    Please don't misconstrue what I'm saying in this post as an endorsement. The purpose of my analysis here and in other posts is simply to try to shed light on the process.

    I was responding to a comment that said, "that moral issues are no longer important to Republicans. Character doesn't matter."

    In all honesty, Republicans are left with the four characters who are still in the race. That's all the "character" that that we are going to get. On top of that, Only one of them is going to win the nomination. The losers may (as I've suggested in the case of Santorum) get to continue on in some fashion. But for the most part, the losers in a presidential election - in a nominating process like this one, get sent packing.

    So in that sense, it is all about winning.

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  9. Hi Brian, thanks for your comments about my wife -- your experience with the church, however, should be different from your experience with a presidential election.

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  10. "your experience with the church, however, should be different from your experience with a presidential election."

    I agree the presidential election is far more personal and moving. I do wish you and yours peace.

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  11. I agree the presidential election is far more personal and moving.

    I'm sorry to hear that.

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  12. Newt betrayed two wives...heck, he might even betray the voters! LOL!

    In a sense, it is all about winning, so Emanuel is quite correct when he says that character doesn't matter.

    In another sense, it doesn't matter who wins, given the current candidates, because all of them, including Obama, are going to make sure that the Corporate state gets what it wants.

    Ergo, character doesn't matter.

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  13. I'm afraid Morrison is more or less right. I'm still voting for Obama, as the lesser of two evils (same reasoning as Truth Unites, but different values), but it does seem that money is the deciding factor in what the government does. I guess it's an old tradition.

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  14. briand1 said:

    Exactly and that sums up my experience in the church

    I'm sorry to hear it. The Diotrophes of the world will have much to answer for.

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  15. "The Diotrophes of the world will have much to answer for."

    I have to be honest I brought some of it on myself. It is more just watching what has happened to people I cared, and care deeply about. I may be a bit to sensitive and emotional but I hate to see people get ripped apart. To my shame I was one of the ones doing the ripping at times. We can make our hearts cold and so we see cold in others. If that makes any sense.

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