Biden

I should say at the outset that I'm terrible at predicting elections. I just don't think like the average voter. In fairness, even folks who do this for a living have been caught off-guard when Obama beat Romney and Trump beat Hillary.

I've read a number of pundits who think Biden can beat Trump if Biden's the nominee. Maybe. But I have reservations.

Biden's strength is his avuncular, down-to-earth, reassuring facade. It's totally phony, but lots of folks can't see through that. And he might bring some blue collar Democrats back to the fold.

However, I suspect Biden suffers from the same problem as Hillary, only for a different reason. By that I mean the enthusiasm gap. I think the base has an appetite for someone like Kamala Harris, not an old white guy. Yeah, they rallied behind Bernie in the last campaign, but Bernie didn't have the competition he now has.

At the time of the primaries and general election, I was living in the bluest county of a very blue state. During the primaries, there was a handful of bumper stickers for Hillary, but far and away most bumper stickers were for Bernie. After Hillary cinched the nomination, I saw hardly any bumper stickers for Hillary. The energy and excitement was gone, like puncturing a balloon. 

Biden is not an inspirational candidate. From what I can tell, he's not the kind of candidate that gets voters to turn out in droves. By contrast, Trump will have many enthusiastic supporters. Admittedly, that cuts both ways since he's a lightning rod. But unless Democrats have a candidate they can put their heart into, their rage at Trump will be harder to mobilize at the polls.