Update: the author of the NR article has issued a Mea Culpa, that the data that he used was not up-to-date, and that it affected the substance of the article:
UPDATE: Mea Culpa. Here’s what happened: I used the New York Times vote-record database for the numbers in this post. This was a matter of convenience; I had already been using the NYT database because of its excellent interactive feature, which allows you to scroll over counties in any state color-coded indicators of partisan margin as well as raw vote totals. Here’s the problem: The NYT database doesn’t have the correct numbers in some states.