Monday, March 07, 2016

Trump Is Losing Ground

Trump had a bad weekend. He was defeated by double-digit percentages in Kansas, Maine, and Puerto Rico. He lost the voting that occurred in Louisiana on Saturday, he only got more votes there overall by winning the early voting, and he apparently ended up getting the same number of delegates from the state as Cruz did. Cruz got more delegates than Trump over the weekend, and Trump ended up with less than a third of the delegates overall.

The New York Times gives us a glimpse into the incompetence of Trump and his campaign:

In conversations with some of his allies, who insisted on anonymity to relay those private talks, Trump campaign aides have expressed concern about the money being spent against him on television. The Trump campaign has no pollster, so it is governed by public polling and what the candidate himself observes while watching cable news….

“Trump has total disdain for the professional political class,” said Scott Reed, a veteran Republican strategist. “He thinks they’re all about making money. Pollsters are hacks. Organization doesn’t matter. Their idea of a political organization is taking phone calls from some elected officials who wanted to endorse and making it work in the schedule. And that’ll catch up with you eventually.”

He's very beatable. Keep fighting.

Larry Sabato recently tweeted:

In Tampa I've seen dozens of pro-Rubio and anti-Trump TV ads over 2 days. None for anyone else.

I'm glad that anti-Trump groups are running ads in Florida, Illinois, etc. And they're addressing some important issues (e.g., Trump University, Trump on military issues). But two of Trump's biggest weaknesses, his mistreatment of women and his unelectability, aren't getting nearly as much attention as they should. Run some clips of Trump's derogatory comments about women on Howard Stern's show. Quote Trump's boasting about committing adultery with so many women. On the issue of electability, provide people with Trump's losing numbers in head-to-head match-ups with Clinton. After showing the numbers and explaining how unelectable he is, end the ad with the words "Donald Trump: Loser" in big letters across the screen. These kinds of ads ought to be running in as many states as possible. It's good to go after him on Trump University and other issues that have been getting a lot of attention, but his mistreatment of women and his unelectability are two others that don't seem to be getting the attention they deserve.


  1. Thanks, Jason. I have a friend who still supports Trump based, primarily, on his nationalism (e.g., maybe instituting tariffs). He seems to view that as the most important issue. What would you say to this sort of person backing Trump?

    1. Please check out Jason's other entry here:

    2. He already knows about these. He doesn't care because he thinks nationalism will get the country back on track.

    3. Nationalism worked so well for Germany that one time... :-P

    4. Jonathan,

      National Review has had a lot of material on tariffs, including specifically in response to Trump. You could run a search on Google to find their posts on the subject.

      But whatever issue a Trump supporter is most concerned about, I'd suggest taking the following approach. Trump is highly untrustworthy. He frequently lies, and he's probably the most self-contradictory candidate to ever run for president. He's unusually immoral, including on matters that involve faithfulness and keeping his word (e.g., publicly boasting about committing adultery with so many women). He has poor electability. Much of what he wants to implement would have to get through Congress and be allowed to stand by the courts. So, why trust what Trump says about his position on tariffs (or whatever else), why think he'll get elected, why think he'll get his position passed through Congress, and why think the courts will let it stand?

      You can also argue against your friend's belief that our highest concern should be something like nationalism or tariffs. I've argued that other issues, namely Supreme Court appointments and abortion, are more significant than the issues Trump supporters usually cite. If the Supreme Court is on the verge of becoming much more of a second legislature than it already is, that's a more foundational issue than something like tariffs.

  2. In the last debate I think it was a YUUUGE mistake for all the other three candidates to say that they would support Trump if he ended up being the Republican nominee. They should have said that they normally would, but won't this time because Trump just isn't a real Republican or a real conservative. I also think all three of them shouldn't have pledged not to run as a third party candidate if Trump becomes the GOP nominee. They should have said that if Trump became the nominee it was because he hijacked it and therefore running as a 3rd party candidate would allow people to vote for a true Republican and conservative.

    1. Never underestimate the self-immolating stupidity of the Republican party. The Dems have been taking it to the bank for years.