Friday, March 11, 2016

Some Of The Reasons Why Trump Will Lose

I just saw Rick Wilson link an article by Adrian Gray, Alex Lundry, and Patrick Ruffini. It addresses some of the difficulties Trump is facing in winning the nomination. I recommend reading the whole thing, but here's an excerpt:

Third, should we arrive at a contested convention, it is also important to recognize how delegates could differentiate from Republican primary voters. In many ways, they will be very similar. Three-quarters of both will be conservative. The median age for each is about 54. And the gender split is similar. But over 80% of convention delegates will have a college degree, whereas, 52% of Republican primary voters in 2016 have graduated college. Exit polling has shown that Trump has an Education Gap, where 42% of non-college Republicans backed him while only 30% with degrees have voted for him. This may not be a harbinger for Trump’s doom, but should we go multiple ballots into the convention, it will require support from a more upscale electorate than the broader GOP electorate.

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