Something I found on Facebook:
Guys,I just don't understand this talk about some enduring liberal hegemony or cultural decline evidenced in this last election. The fact of the matter is that at the national level, all the prime indicators are of a trend away from Obama and the Democrats. These trends weren't enough to cost him the election, but the trends are there nevertheless.Bizarrely, both liberal websites like the NY Times and some Christian commentators want to compare things to the 2004 Bush election. But surely the relevant point of comparison is 2008 Obama vs. McCain.In 2008, Obama had an 8% edge over McCain in the popular vote. In 2012, that shrunk to perhaps 2%.In 2008, the electoral vote totals were 365 (Obama) vs. 173 (McCain). In 2012, the totals were 303 (Obama) vs. 206 (Romney). Once again, the trend is away from Obama.In 2012, Democrats lost the electoral votes of two states they carried in 2008 (North Carolina and Indiana), and they gained no new states.So, by all indications, the nation was far less enthusiastic about Obama than four years ago. How does this translate into some national shift towards the Democratic agenda, or an enduring Democratic majority? Such talk floats as free of the evidence as all the triumphalistic blather about a permanent Republican majority in the wake of W's trouncing of Kerry in 2004.To be sure, legislative bellwethers aren't great: same-sex marriage, legalizing recreational marijuana, etc. But the national election just isn't indicating what many pundits are claiming. Check out the NY Times page on the exit polls, and click "Show Change From 2008":Nearly every demographic category trends toward Romney and away from Obama, compared to 2008, including the black vote, the unmarried vote, and all categories of age or education! The only exceptions were the Hispanic and Asian vote.Finally, the AP calculates that voter turnout was significantly down, only at 60%:Perhaps 117 million voted, compared to 131 million in 2008. If anything, the trend is towards apathy, not Obama-approval.As I usually ask: what am I missing?
"Nearly every demographic category trends toward Romney and away from Obama, compared to 2008, including the black vote, the unmarried vote, and all categories of age or education! The only exceptions were the Hispanic and Asian vote."
ReplyDeleteSpeaking as a minority: alas and alack!