Supreme Court Justices showing their hands on Obamacare?

The Supreme Court is in the middle of hearing three days worth of arguments over the Obamacare health care law, but today's arguments were over the critical "mandate" question. And it seems as if the questioning from the justices showed what the issues will be.

http://blogs.wsj.com/washwire/2012/03/27/live-blog-obama-health-law-at-the-supreme-court-day-2

To sum up:

It was a typical Supreme Court argument – although the stakes are anything but typical – in that the justices asked tough questions of both sides. Seven justices' votes seem pretty secure: The four liberal justices will likely vote to uphold the law, while three of the conservatives—justices Scalia, Thomas and Alito—appear ready to strike it down.

That leaves Chief Justice Roberts and, especially, Justice Kennedy, the perennial swing vote. Justice Kennedy's early comment that the government carried a “heavy burden of justification” showed considerable sympathy for the challengers. But toward the end, one of his questions suggested that people who don’t carry health insurance are still engaged in the health-care market—which is the central pillar of the government's case.

The ruling is likely to come toward the end of June. For three months, people are going to be chewing over those questions by Justice Kennedy. One of them likely holds the key to the outcome—but which one?

Kennedy was characteristically noncommittal, but he left a clue as to what the discussion might be about:

Justice Kennedy said the mandate would change the relationship between the government and individuals in a "fundamental way," showing skepticism toward Mr. Verrilli's argument that the mandate follows Congress's well-established authority under the Constitution's Commerce Clause....

Justice Kennedy wavered over the assertion that in health care, a bright line could be drawn between those engaged in commerce and those staying wholly outside the market.

"Most questions in life are matters of degree," Justice Kennedy said. The younger, healthier Americans the law seeks to drive into the risk pool are "uniquely proximate" to affecting insurance rates, he said.

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702303816504577307340343548520.html