Showing posts with label Michael Barone. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Michael Barone. Show all posts

Saturday, November 03, 2012

Michael Barone predicts ...

Michael Barone is one of the most astute and honest political commentators I’ve seen. He generally writes for conservative publications, but I believe he is well-respected across the political spectrum. Barone’s method seems to be unique among political commentators. He studies political life “on the ground” – that is, he’s very familiar with looking at voting patterns historically within states, down to the county and precinct level. He has the kind of knowledge that’s only available to someone who’s studied such things and has become familiar with them over time. When he speaks of “fundamentals”, he does so out of a wealth of personal knowledge and study.

Barone has gone out on a limb and made his final prediction, “fully aware that I'm likely to get some wrong”. Here is how he calls it:

Fundamentals usually prevail in American elections. That's bad news for Barack Obama.

… most voters oppose Obama's major policies and consider unsatisfactory the very sluggish economic recovery -- Friday's jobs report showed an unemployment uptick.

Also, both national and target state polls show that independents, voters who don't identify themselves as Democrats or Republicans, break for Romney.

That might not matter if Democrats outnumbered Republicans by 39 to 32 percent, as they did in the 2008 exit poll. But just about every indicator suggests that Republicans are more enthusiastic about voting -- and about their candidate -- than they were in 2008, and Democrats are less so.