Showing posts with label Economics. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Economics. Show all posts

Thursday, June 04, 2020

The fragility of black existence

Tuesday, May 12, 2020

The Worldwide Lockdown May Be the Greatest Mistake in History

The United Nations World Food Programme, or the WFP, states that by the end of the year, more than 260 million people will face starvation — double last year’s figures. According to WFP director David Beasley on April 21: “We could be looking at famine in about three dozen countries. … There is also a real danger that more people could potentially die from the economic impact of COVID-19 than from the virus itself” (italics added).
That would be enough to characterize the worldwide lockdown as a deathly error. But there is much more. If global GDP declines by 5%, another 147 million people could be plunged into extreme poverty, according to the International Food Policy Research Institute.
Foreign Policy magazine reports that, according to the International Monetary Fund, the global economy will shrink by 3% in 2020, marking the biggest downturn since the Great Depression, and the U.S., the eurozone and Japan will contract by 5.9%, 7.5% and 5.2%, respectively. Meanwhile, across South Asia, as of a month ago, tens of millions were already “struggling to put food on the table.” Again, all because of the lockdowns, not the virus.
In one particularly incomprehensible act, the government of India, a poor country of 1.3 billion people, locked down its people. As Quartz India reported on April 22, “Coronavirus has killed only around 700 Indians … a small number still compared to the 450,000 TB and 10,000-odd malaria deaths recorded every year.”
One of the thousands of unpaid garment workers protesting the lockdown in Bangladesh understands the situation better than almost any health official in the world: “We are starving. If we don’t have food in our stomach, what’s the use of observing this lockdown?” But concern for that Bangladeshi worker among the world’s elites seems nonexistent.
The lockdown is “possibly even more catastrophic (than the virus) in its outcome: the collapse of global food-supply systems and widespread human starvation” (italics added). That was published in the left-wing The Nation, which, nevertheless, enthusiastically supports lockdowns. But the American left cares as much about the millions of non-Americans reduced to hunger and starvation because of the lockdown as it does about the people of upstate New York who have no incomes, despite the minuscule number of coronavirus deaths there. Or about the citizens of Oregon, whose governor has just announced the state will remain locked down until July 6. As of this writing, a total of 109 people have died of the coronavirus in Oregon.

Sunday, April 26, 2020

On the Beach

On the Beach (1959) is a memorable film. A movie that's better for the parts than the whole. A heavy-handed unilateral disarmament film by the terminally sappy-headed Stanley Kramer. But if you can bracket the polyannaish propaganda, it's a useful political allegory. 

In the film, the human race in the northern hemisphere was instantly annihilated by a thermonuclear exchange between Russia and the USA. Humans in the southern hemisphere temporally survived, but they know they are doomed by the delayed reaction of fallout as it drifts down to the southern hemisphere, so that human life on earth will become extinct. 

The question raised by the coronavirus is whether it will plunge the globe into a worldwide Venezuela. The irony is that this a catastrophe, not caused directly or primarily by the pathogen, but by bureaucratic countermeasures to contain the pathogen. By heads-of-state, governors, mayors, and public health officials, supported by citizens who are either sheepishly subservient or blindly regard cooperation as their patriotic duty. How dire it gets remains to be seen. But there's certainly reason for foreboding. 

Monday, April 20, 2020

The immorality of indefinite lockdowns

Under the guise of executive powers reserved for short-term disasters such as hurricanes, leaders across the West have done the previously unthinkable: they have forbidden entire segments of the population from working. Using a nonsensical distinction between essential and non-essential (as if providing for one’s family is ever non-essential) our entire workforce has been divided into three groups: 1.) The upper class with jobs that can be performed in their pajamas at home, 2.) Laborers lucky enough to still be able to go to work, and 3.) Those intentionally rendered unemployed.

Those who belong to that final group include...Waitresses, barbers, sales employees, janitors, those who provide child care and others who often live paycheck to paycheck. Also included are those who are small business owners...

https://rorate-caeli.blogspot.com/2020/04/guest-op-ed-immorality-of-indefinite.html

Noblesse oblige

1. Pampered Hollywood celebrities like Patton Oswalt have no idea how comments like this come across to average people. Celebrities are too disconnected from reality. They've evidently forgotten (if they ever knew) what it's like to be an average person. Oswalt sounds more like Marie Antoinette telling peasants: "Let them eat cake!"

2. An obvious issue is many people can't afford Netflix, video games, and getting food delivered to them if they don't have a job.

3. As far as "risking viral death". In fact, some or many people would be willing to risk their own health in order to provide for their families. I'm not suggesting people in general should risk their health or their lives, but it's certainly not something Oswalt should so readily disdain and dismiss.

4. That said, I think it might be prudent if protesters took a lesson from Hollywood by ensuring their protests have good optics. Not to give media any fodder to depict protesters as an angry or unruly mob or somesuch. For example, keep a safe distance from other protesters while protesting, wear a surgical mask, etc.

5. Another recent example is Nancy Pelosi's "let them eat ice cream" moment:

Wednesday, April 08, 2020

Medical dystopia

Economic downturns always lead to increased poverty, and increased poverty necessarily results in more deaths. By "flattening the curve" via turning off the economy, we've now made it where not only do you have to avoid COVID-19 during your quarantine, but you need to avoid that heart attack, accidental fall in the shower, burning yourself at the stove, not tripping over your cat, etc. etc. etc. Because hospitals can't afford to pay doctor's and nurses given the ban on so-called "elective" procedures and the fact that most people who need any medical care are probably furloughed too so they can't pay anyway, they have to cut hours and pay, meaning there's fewer people to see you during your emergency. When you enact the economics of a socialist utopia, you get the standard of living of a socialist utopia. Only now there's no America to flee to.

https://www.facebook.com/peter.pike.75/posts/10158167326508928

Destroy the healthcare system to save the healthcare system

Remember when a major rationale for lockdowns and curfews was to "flatten the exponential growth curve" so that the healthcare system wouldn't be overwhelmed by COVID-19 patients? Only here's the side-effect on the healthcare system:

A qualified herd immunity strategy

As an alternative to lockdowns and mass house arrest:

https://ratical.org/PerspectivesOnPandemic-II.html

SWEDEN’S CORONAVIRUS NUMBERS VS. AMERICA’S

Significant if accurate, as an alternative to lockdowns and mass house arrest:

https://www.powerlineblog.com/archives/2020/04/swedens-numbers-vs-americas.php

Thursday, March 26, 2020

Are there silver bullets for the coronavirus?

I've been critical of the official policies to address the pandemic, but I haven't offered an alternative. That's in part because I'm not an expert, and even the experts disagree. But here's my general impression:

These seem to be the basic strategies. And in some respects these present conflicting strategies:

i) Mass isolation. Impose curfews/lockdowns to bend the growth curve/transmission rate. Social distancing is key.

ii) Mass testing. Test the population to find out who's infected. Quarantine the infected. Treat the infected with promising preexisting drugs while developing new antivirals. Let the uninfected continue business as usual (more or less).

iii) Let the virus naturally spread to cultivate herd immunity in the population. While the virus is highly contagious, it isn't life-threatening to humans in general. High-risk groups are vulnerable, and the virus will kill some healthy individuals in the prime of life, but most folks develop mild symptoms and have the natural ability to recover. 

I may have oversimplified the options. There may be no silver bullet. 

Wednesday, March 25, 2020

Economic Costs Are Human Costs

https://arcdigital.media/economic-costs-are-human-costs-1efc97c41fa0

Crashing the economy

I wonder if Democrat officials are prepared to crash the economy under the pretext of flattening the curve as their last best chance to defeat Trump in November, figuring that Trump will be blamed, voters will oust him and he will take the rest of the GOP down with him. Thus far Trump's approval ratings are actually up, but the situation is volatile. 

Tuesday, March 24, 2020

About that exponential growth curve

i) I notice commentators in social media who think the necessity of radical social distancing via lockdowns, curfews, and self-quarantine is vindicated by an "exponential" transmission rate when the pandemic spreads to a new area. The quote statistics about the daily expansion rate of infections. 

I'm no expert, but I assume the pattern is for an outbreak to initially spike, then taper off once the most susceptible members of society have been infected. It's not a continuous upward curve until everyone is infected inasmuch as individuals vary in their susceptibility to infection as well as their natural ability to recover. If so, it's not an uncontrolled pandemic but naturally plateaus. 

ii) On a related note, there's a widely expressed concern that unless radical social distancing measure are enacted and enforced (lockdowns, curfews), the elderly and immunodeficient will be disparately impacted by the pandemic. While that's a morally admirable concern and consideration, policies that lead to economic collapse will also have disastrous effects on the elderly and immunodeficient. It will lead to pension plans going belly up, retirement investments drying up, acceleration of entitlement programs like S.S., Medicare, Medicaid becoming insolvent–not to mention bankrupting hospitals. Quality medical care depends on economic prosperity. Policies that cause economic devastating are not a way to save the elderly.