A parallel occurred to me between Israeli and American politics. To my knowledge, the Israeli electorate is generally quite liberal (although the demographics may be changing since pious Jews have bigger families than secular Jews.) In the past, Jewish voters used to alternate between hawkish prime ministers and dovish prime ministers. However, every time a dovish prime minister bent over backwards to make peace with Muslims, his efforts were rewarded by Muslims attacking Israel. As a result, liberal Israelis have been voting for very hawkish prime ministers like Ariel Sharon and Benjamin Netanyahu. If Israelis felt safe, if it wasn't for the security issues, figures like Netanyahu and Sharon wouldn't be viable candidates. A lot of voters dislike them. But militant Muslims have forced the Israeli electorate to move to the right for national self-preservation. Even otherwise liberal Israelis aren't suicidal.
We have an analogous situation in the US. Progressives made Donald Trump possible. And they may ensure his reelection. There are voters who wouldn't vote for Trump in normal times, but they will vote for him because he's the buffer between them and the progressive lynch mobs.
--However, every time a dovish prime minister bent over backwards to make peace with Muslims, his efforts were rewarded by Muslims attacking Israel. As a result, liberal Israelis have been voting for very hawkish prime ministers like Ariel Sharon and Benjamin Netanyahu.--
ReplyDeleteJews are accused of many things, but stupidity is not one of them!
It's interesting Trump seems to be attracting minorities and women who would normally vote for Democrats (e.g. Latinos). Not a majority of these minorities, but given how Democrats need all the female and minority votes they can get (largely thanks to the Democrats' generation or more of playing identity politics), even if a minority of certain minorities switch from voting Democrat to voting Republican, then that could tip the balance in favor of Republicans.
ReplyDeleteI suspect a big reason many women and minorities are attracted to Trump is because he's an alpha male. He oozes machismo. For example, I remember lots of Democrats criticizing Obama in his first debate with Romney for being lackluster or sedate while Romney came across as confident. So Obama went on the offensive in the next two debates, while it was now the Republicans' turn to criticize Romney for being too nice to or soft on Obama. No one wants a president that's weak, effete, ineffectual - at least not today. People want a warrior in a time of war. And both Democrats and Republicans recognize war is upon us.
It might also be telling that the two last men left standing in the Republican primaries were Trump and Cruz. Both of whom were perceived (rightly or wrongly) to be fighters, even or perhaps especially against their own party's establishment.
DeleteBy contrast, an establishment candidate like Jeb Bush fared poorly, though he seems to be a decent man.
To be fair, perhaps someone like Scott Walker would have been an equally good pick as Trump. Maybe (debatably) Walker dropped out too soon. Not sure.
Also, at the time there were something like 15 or 20 candidates all vying for the nomination. That diluted the votes.
That said, Democrats may suffer the same fate in their primaries for the upcoming election. Tons of Democrats all chomping at the bits to run against Trump. I guess it remains to be seen if Democrats will nominate a fighter. Let alone a bruiser like Trump.
By way of analogy, it's why a lot of people dislike Floyd Mayweather but like Manny Pacquiao. Mayweather is the far more impressive boxer by boxing stats, but (rightly or wrongly) he's not always regarded as a true fighter in the spirit of what boxing was meant to be. By contrast, Manny has had several big losses, but he came from the streets, and he's brawler, and who doesn't love a brawler - at least a brawler with a heart of gold? (To be fair, Manny was past his prime when he fought Mayweather, which may have been Mayweather's intention to wait for Manny to be past his prime before fighting Manny.)
DeleteThe further left the Democrats go, the better it will be for Trump in 2020.
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