Post-Catholicism

I'm not making any firm predictions. Prognostications are not my strong suit. 

There is, though, a plausible trajectory regarding the church of Rome. Since Pius XII, it's been in process of becoming a mainline denomination. Francis has accelerated that process. The question is whether the trend is already irreversible.

The motivation has been around for a long time. The idea is that Christianity must adapt to survive. "Modern man" can no longer believe many things his backward, superstitious ancestors believed. This project has been around for a long time. For instance:

https://plato.stanford.edu/entries/schleiermacher/#PhilReli

Bultmann was another notable exponent. These theologians are idealists. They don't think they are destroying Christianity, but saving Christianity. 

Francis has the support of some bishops, many priests, many Catholic academics. I don't know what percentage of the Roman episcopate supports his initiatives, but it's clearly significant. 

In addition, it's my impression that he's popular among the laity. Given that coalition, along with the inherent prerogatives of the papal office, he seems to be unstoppable. Question is how far he wants to go, how long he lives, and his successors. 

The church of Rome generally prefers an incremental strategy of stepwise compromise to major overnight changes. A softening up process. 

A minority of Catholics take doctrine seriously. By contrast, many Catholics aren't doctrinally oriented. They don't care about logical or historical consistency. In regard to that constituency, a pope can get away with dramatic reversals and contradictions, so long as his policies are deemed to be an improvement over the status quo ante.

From my observation, Catholics who are doctrinally oriented subdivide:

i) Some Catholic apologists, after initially defending Francis, have retreated into diplomatic silence.

ii) Apropos (i), some Catholics have lost hope in Francis, but refuse to openly oppose him. They've hunkered down, hoping his successor(s) will stem the tide. 

iii) Some Catholic apologists rubber-stamp whatever he says and does.

iv) Some conservative Catholics–especially converts–are openly critical of Francis. 

Whether his successors will lock in his initiatives, continue the process of modernism, or attempt to backtrack depends in part on the composition of the next papal conclave. To my knowledge, 75 is the mandatory retirement age for cardinals (indeed, for bishops generally), which gives Francis an opportunity to pack the College of Cardinals with theological soulmates if he can hang on for a few more years. Because bishops are already apt to be up in years when they are elevated to the cardinalate, there's rapid turnover in the College of Cardinals:

http://www.gcatholic.org/hierarchy/cardinals-alive-age.htm

It's also striking that Francis was elected by a College of Cardinals, all of whom were appointed by hardline popes (John-Paul II, Benedict XVI). If a papal conclave with a more conservative composition elected Francis, it's hard to see how a papal conclave with a more liberal composition will elect a rightwing reactionary. However, some cardinals, even if they are sympathetic to the modernist agenda, may wish to avoid a bomb-thrower. Time will tell. 

Suppose in the next 50 years, give or take, the church of Rome becomes just another mainline denomination. By that I mean, its theology becomes essentially indistinguishable from the other mainline denominations (e.g. UMC, ELCA, ECUSA, PCUSA). That will precipitate a schism. 

On the one hand it will temporarily replenish the radtrad movement. However, that's a blind alley. 

On the other hand, charismatics have already siphoned off many Catholics. They lie in wait to absorb the influx of disaffected Catholics. (Of course, the charismatic movement is a swamp.)

A post-Catholic world will involve a major realignment, with evangelicals taking up some of the slack. Indeed, that process is already underway. 

Of course, evangelicalism is a soft identity that ranges along a political and theological continuum. However, the combined effect of Obama and Trump is to force fence-straddlers to go left. Theological "moderates" are rapidly shrinking. 

If the Roman church becomes a mainline denomination, it won't die overnight. Rather, it will slowly bleed to death. But the process of secularization can be rapid. Catholicism imploded in Quebec in one generation. The collapse was sudden because the culture was already so nominally Catholic.