Survey of contemporary American religious beliefs

I may comment on this for later, but for now, here are the statements given to respondents, percentiles, as well as demographic breakdown:

http://lifewayresearch.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/10/Ligonier-State-of-Theology-2018.pdf

http://lifewayresearch.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/10/Ligonier-State-of-Theology-2018-White-Paper.pdf

Polling Shows The Importance Of Christmas Apologetics

The Pew Research Center recently published the results of a study showing that Americans hold a significantly less Christian view of Christmas than they did as recently as a few years ago. For example:

Not only are some of the more religious aspects of Christmas less prominent in the public sphere, but there are signs that they are on the wane in Americans’ private lives and personal beliefs as well. For instance, there has been a noticeable decline in the percentage of U.S. adults who say they believe that biblical elements of the Christmas story – that Jesus was born to a virgin, for example – reflect historical events that actually occurred. And although most Americans still say they mark the occasion as a religious holiday, there has been a slight drop in recent years in the share who say they do this.

Currently, 55% of U.S. adults say they celebrate Christmas as a religious holiday, including 46% who see it as more of a religious holiday than a cultural holiday and 9% who celebrate Christmas as both a religious and a cultural occasion. In 2013, 59% of Americans said they celebrated Christmas as a religious holiday, including 51% who saw it as more religious than cultural and 7% who marked the day as both a religious and a cultural holiday….

But the remaining two-thirds of the U.S. public either is not bothered by a perceived decline in religion in Christmas or does not believe that the emphasis on the religious elements of Christmas is waning.

Among the topics probed by the new survey, one of the most striking changes in recent years involves the share of Americans who say they believe the birth of Jesus occurred as depicted in the Bible. Today, 66% say they believe Jesus was born to a virgin, down from 73% in 2014. Likewise, 68% of U.S. adults now say they believe that the wise men were guided by a star and brought gifts for baby Jesus, down from 75%.

In another part of the story, they break down the survey results by age groups. While those born in 1945 or earlier have had an increase in their belief in the Biblical accounts by a few percentage points since 2014, Millennials have had a decrease by a double-digit percentage.

In 2013, in response to research like Pew's, the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette ran a story in which pastors in the Pittsburgh area were interviewed about how they approach apologetic issues during the Christmas season. The pastors made various excuses for why they didn't do much to address the issues. I quoted the story and commented on it at the time.

If you're interested in doing more about the problem than individuals like those pastors want to do, here's a place to begin.

"I felt the necessity to write to you appealing that you contend earnestly for the faith which was once for all handed down to the saints." (Jude 3)

"Strange were it that the physician, or the shoemaker, or the weaver, in short all artists, should be able each to contend correctly for his own art, but that one calling himself Christian should not be able to give a reason for his own faith; yet those things if overlooked bring only loss to men’s property, these if neglected destroy our very souls. Yet such is our wretched disposition, that we give all our care to the former, and the things which are necessary, and which are the groundwork of our salvation, as though of little worth, we despise. That it is which prevents the heathen from quickly deriding his own error. For when they, though established in a lie, use every means to conceal the shamefulness of their opinions, while we, the servants of the truth, cannot even open our mouths, how can they help condemning the great weakness of our doctrine? how can they help suspecting our religion to be fraud and folly? how shall they not blaspheme Christ as a deceiver, and a cheat, who used the folly of the many to further his fraud? And we are to blame for this blasphemy, because we will not be wakeful in arguments for godliness, but deem these things superfluous, and care only for the things of earth." (John Chrysostom, Homilies On John, 17:3-4)

Clinton Can Still Easily Be Beaten

But a lot depends on what happens the rest of this primary season and what happens at the open convention the Republican party is likely to have. Something I wrote in another thread:

Clinton's negatives are high. Trump's are higher. It's not that Clinton is hard to defeat. It wouldn't be hard. Rubio, Kasich, and Cruz, for example, have frequently beaten her in the polls. Some Republicans are still ahead of her in RealClearPolitics' poll average, even though the Republican primary season has been so unusually negative, and that negativity has received so much more media attention than the negativity in the Democratic primaries. If multiple Republican candidates can beat Clinton so often in the polls, even in such a negative primary season in which Trump is making the Republicans look so bad, it would probably be even easier to beat Clinton once the primaries are over and Trump is receiving less attention.

I'd still only give Cruz a 45% chance of winning against Clinton, but that's far better than Trump's chances. I'd expect Rubio or Kasich to win easily. So would other Republicans, if they were to be the nominee.

Your Choice Is Rubio Or Trump, Not Cruz

Leon Wolf, the editor-in-chief of Red State, has just endorsed Rubio, and he makes some good points in the process. Be sure to read the article by Dan McLaughlin that he links. And other arguments for Rubio could be added to the list. He does significantly better against Clinton in the polls. He helps Republicans in a state where they need more help (Florida, in contrast to Texas). Etc.

I hope Cruz does the right thing by dropping out no later than early March. I'd like to see him drop out in the last two days of February if his polling doesn't improve a lot before then. But if he's going to stay in beyond February, I hope he at least doesn't stay beyond early March. And if Cruz doesn't do the right thing, his supporters had better do it.

Since Cruz is so young and has so many positive attributes (along with some weaknesses), he has a promising future in some political contexts (as a senator or potential governor of Texas, Supreme Court justice, etc.) But he's not good as a presidential candidate. Even if he still wanted to be president, this isn't his year. He has time to run again at least twice, given how young he is. He ought to leave the 2016 race sooner rather than later. If he would do that, it would do far more good than the alternative, and it would improve his standing in the party and his political prospects over the long run.

Vote For Cruz In Iowa

Judging by this evening's Des Moines Register numbers, I suggest that people vote for Cruz in Iowa unless new information comes along to change the picture significantly. Rubio should be the nominee, for reasons I've explained elsewhere, but giving Trump a loss in Iowa is more important than giving Rubio a better third-place finish. And I don't know how voting for Carson, Paul, Christie, etc. could be justified by their supporters. They ought to support Cruz as well.

But if you read the article I linked in my first sentence above, you'll see that Trump has a lot of problems. Half of his supporters haven't participated in the caucuses before. And there's a consensus that Trump doesn't have much of an operation in place for getting people out to vote, whereas Cruz seems to have the best operation. I still expect Cruz to win Iowa, but a Trump victory is too much of a threat for any of you in Iowa to vote for anybody other than Cruz.

By the way, Gallup recently published an article about how Trump has the worst favorability numbers in Gallup's nearly quarter-century history of tracking favorability numbers for presidential candidates.

The Weaknesses Of Cruz And Carson

Two recent posts at National Review are good at summing up some of the biggest weaknesses of Ted Cruz and Ben Carson. And notice the irrational responses by supporters of Cruz, Carson, and Trump in the comments sections of both threads. They unwittingly underscore the point that Rubio should be the nominee. As you hear from Rubio's critics in online forums, on talk radio, etc., keep in mind that he has a 94% rating from the Heritage Foundation and 98% from the American Conservative Union.