Monday, February 01, 2016

Cruz control

This is a more impressive win for Cruz than it would have been a month ago because, in the intervening weeks:

i) Trump played the Birther card on Cruz

ii) Palin endorsed Trump, as did Jerry Falwell, Jr. 

iii) The Iowa governor endorsed Trump

iv) Members of the GOP "establishment" made it known that they were backing Trump rather than Cruz

v) Cruz took a big risk by opposing farm subsidies (i.e. ethanol) in a farm state 

vi) It was a come from behind victory. Polls had Trump with a big lead, while Cruz won by a comfortable margin.

Yet Cruz pulled through despite those additional obstacles. 

In addition, Rubio surged. It was a great night for Cruz, good night for Rubio, and bad night for everyone else. Both Cruz and Rubio performed above expectations while Trump performed below expectations. Rubio almost overtook Trump. Still, a win is a win, especially in the first primary of the season.

The remaining candidates had a disastrous showing. They need to get out. It's now a 3-man race.  

To make sure Trump is good n dead, Trump still needs to lose a few more primaries to drive a stake through his heart. But this is a good start.

According to Nate Silver:

One thing we’ll be thinking about over the next several days is how much Donald Trump’s inferior ground game harmed him tonight in Iowa. 
An argument against the ground game having been the sole cause of his defeat: Republican turnout tonight now projects to be around 180,000, well ahead of 2012’s total of around 120,000 voters and somewhat ahead of where most political watchers expected it to be. Given how poorly Trump performed among the late-deciders in tonight’s entrance poll, it’s possible he had a different problem: trouble expanding his coalition beyond his intense but relatively narrow base of support.


  1. Trump's "trump card" remains running as an independent, which doubtless would kill any GOP presidential contender. While Iowa was good news, we've not seen the last of Trump for a long time.

    1. Yeah, I don't believe Trump was sincere when he promised not to run 3rd party. Assuming for the sake of the argument he's as conservative as he's currently claiming, his winning is more important to him than what's in the best interest for the country.

      Assuming for the sake of argument he's really a liberal (which is clearly the case), in his mind he's probably thinking he's got nothing to lose by running 3rd party anyway. Since, if he did and lost, a liberal like Clinton or Sanders will most likely end up being POTUS. Which would (in his mind) be better for the country anyway. It's a win/win situation.

      I don't see any reason why Trump would not want to run 3rd party. Other than the possible humiliating situation of losing a second time.

  2. Time to get rid of the ethanol mandate! What a scam on the American people.

  3. I think the Preview for the post needs updating. The title is correct, but the content of the preview says you are going to be talking about the occult and paranormal :)