Tuesday, September 01, 2015

Trump's Shallow, Anti-Conservative Support

Trump is getting some support from conservatives, but a big percentage of his support is shallow (e.g., based largely on name recognition) or anti-conservative. See, for example, here and here. Here's an excerpt from the second article:

"Among his supporters, a 47% plurality identifies him as 'conservative' but 30% call him 'moderate' and another 11% say he's 'liberal.' For many, it's his personality rather than his ideology that makes the difference. A 65% majority of Trump's supporters say they're willing to put their trust in his ability to figure out the issues on the fly and don't need him to be clear about specific policies he'd address if elected."

A Slate article from late July:

"But while Trump’s outsider appeal is undeniable, a closer look at the polls suggests it may also be overblown. In the last national survey conducted by Fox News, for instance, pollsters reassigned Trump supporters based on their declared second choice. The biggest winner? None other than establishment poster boy Jeb Bush, who saw his support climb by more than a third to 19 percent. (The bizarre Bush-Trump overlap can also be seen in reverse: With Jeb out, Trump’s support climbs by 3 points, the biggest jump of any member of the field.) It’s only one poll, of course, but we’ve seen similar trends in others."


  1. There are voters who begin with conservative principles, then measure Trump accordingly. He comes up short.

    By contrast, there are voters who begin with Trump, then measure conservative principles accordingly. They make Trump the standard of comparison. They adjust the definition of a conservative to fit Trump.

  2. One thing I've not anything about, and there may not be anything there, is Trump's connections to the casino industry, and the generally suspected (accepted?) ties between organized crime and casinos.

    I'm not say Trump has mob ties, but is there any concern in this area? Should there be?

    1. CR,

      I recently heard somebody bring the topic up. I think it was Michael Medved, on his radio program yesterday. As I recall, he brought up how problematic Trump's casino connections are for religious conservatives.

      By the way, I should also mention that I recently heard Terry Mattingly (while being interviewed on Issues, Etc.) comment on how Trump's support from Evangelicals comes from less committed Evangelicals. Mattingly points out that it's important to distinguish between people identified as Evangelicals in general and people who demonstrate their religious commitment by doing things like attending church regularly. Apparently, if you single out the more committed Evangelicals, support for Trump drops by a large margin. Trump's Evangelical support apparently comes primarily from shallower forms of Evangelicalism.

    2. That makes a lot of sense to me.