Coronavirus doesn't care about your feelings

As Ben Shapiro is wont to say: facts don't care about your feelings. So here are some facts. Granted, even the "facts" in this case could be debated to a certain degree. Regardless it's a starting point for reasonable discussion.

Here's an interesting image:

1. The above is an image from emergency physician Mel Herbert at the University of Southern California (USC), which by the way was the basis for the tv series Code Black. Anyway the image was only posted a few moments ago in a livestream involving emergency medicine physicians associated with EM:RAP.

2. The image compares the mortality rate of this current coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2/COVID-19) with other coronaviruses (i.e. MERS and SARS) as well as with the seasonal flu and the common cold.

3. In sum, the COVID-19 mortality rate seems to be between 2%-4%, while MERS was at a very high 34%, SARS at 10%, the seasonal flu at 0.1%, and the common cold near 0%.

4. Keep in mind, however, that the mortality rate for COVID-19 is likely unreliable.

5. For comparison, the Spanish flu mortality rate was approximately 3% to 5%, depending whether the Spanish flu killed 50 million to 100 million people.

Now here's another image to consider:

1. This image was presented by emergency physician David Talan at the University of California, Los Angeles (UCLA). It was presented in the same livestream as the previous image.

2. This image shows how extensive (or not) testing has been for COVID-19.

3. The salient point to note is that South Korea has done extensive testing in comparison to other nations. Especially via their 10-minute drive-through testing centers (which other places around the world are starting to implement too, e.g., UCSF). Trace, test, and treat.

4. In addition, Talan as well as other medical and health care experts note that the mortality rate for S. Korea is around 0.6%.

5. The number of new coronavirus cases in S. Korea seems to be significantly dropping.

6. To my knowledge, S. Korea has not had to implement city-wide lockdowns like Italy has.

What does all this mean?

1. The fact that S. Korea has done extensive testing for the coronavirus likely means their numbers are more reliable than places that haven't done extensive testing.

2. If so, S. Korea might be a reliable indicator of where the mortality rate ultimately falls. If so, then it's possible the 0.6% mortality rate might be closer to how the coronavirus will ultimately play out. Rather than, say, the 3%-5% mortality rates for the Spanish flu.

3. S. Korea may prove to be a role model for how to deal with the coronavirus. (Likewise other nations like Taiwan, Hong Kong, and Singapore.) But that's only if other nations can do what S. Korea is doing.

4. All that said, there might be significant differences between S. Korea and other nations like us (e.g. different health demographics). That could mean even if we do what S. Korea is doing, it doesn't necessarily mean we will have the same outcomes. At the same time, this isn't to suggest we should not be doing what S. Korea is doing either.

5. At the end of the day, only time will tell how bad the coronavirus is. As the saying goes: hope for the best, plan for the worst.