Super Tuesday showcased Trump's strengths and weaknesses. As expected, he did well. Remains the front runner. The man to beat. He has the momentum.
However, in states he won, he's only getting about 30-40% of the vote. That means 60-70% are voting for anti-Trump candidates. Not a good omen when 60-70% of the party is voting against you.
Cruz won three states, including his home state. Had a strong second place showing in Arkansas.
Rubio won Minnesota (with Trump in third place), is currently edging out Cruz (for second place) in Georgia, and had a near miss with Trump in the key swing state of Virginia.
The Super Tuesday states were unusually favorable to Cruz. Initially, the Cruz campaign was expected to dominate those states. Instead, he came in second, well behind Trump, by winning three states. Later states are more favorable to Rubio, and Rubio has better electability for the general election campaign. See the thread here, and read the Leon Wolf and Dan McLaughlin articles referenced there. As McLaughlin's tables in his article note, the large majority of states from here on out are closed states (only Republicans can vote), in contrast to the larger percentage of open states up to this point. That's bad news for Trump.
ReplyDeleteEither Rubio or Cruz would be much better than Trump. There are some scenarios in which it would make sense for Rubio to drop out and endorse Cruz. I'm open to that, though I don't think either candidate needs to drop out yet. Trump underperformed last night, and the results suggest that he can be weakened further.
If we get to a brokered convention, Trump should be rejected, regardless of what he and his supporters threaten and regardless of how much anger it would initially cause, how the media would cover it, etc. Trump is too damaging to the nation, the conservative movement, and the party. The rules allow somebody other than Trump to be chosen. If the person with the most delegates should always get the nomination, then what's the point of a brokered convention? Why not just automatically give the nomination to the person with the most delegates? Obviously, that's not how the system was meant to operate. The fact that Trump supporters self-servingly want it to operate in a way similar to that doesn't mean that it does or should operate that way. Trump agreed to the Republican rules, and the Republican rules allow somebody other than him to be chosen at a brokered convention, even if he has the most delegates. Those of us who oppose Trump need to focus on the rules and how Trump and his supporters agreed to abide by those rules.
By the way, I saw a Democrat quoted yesterday to the effect that about 80% of the damaging material they have on Trump hasn't come out yet. In other words, as much damaging material about Trump as there is circulating now (his derogatory comments about women, his abuse of eminent domain, etc.), we've only seen a small portion of what's to come. Some Republicans are financing further efforts to get more damaging information on Trump and get it publicized before March 15. Tim Miller, who's involved in one of those efforts, said that there's going to be more coming out soon, prior to the March 15 voting.
ReplyDeleteout of that vast initial field of decent, qualified candidates it's down to DT, so it seems. Gov Christi's facial expression last eve says it all. And on a side note, I'd love for the nation to have seen a "living JFK" offer a full critique of Hillary's speech last night.
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