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Tuesday, March 10, 2020

A worst-case scenario about the coronavirus

Suppose we take a worst-case scenario with regard to the coronavirus pandemic:

  1. Case fatality rates for coronavirus are predicted to be around 0.5% to 1% when it's all said and done. Yes, that's already very high in comparison to, say, the seasonal flu, which is 0.05% to 0.1%. If the predictions are accurate, then that's 1.65 million to 3.3 million dead in a population of approximately 330 million.

    However, suppose the case fatality rate from coronavirus is super high at (say) 3%. If 3% die, then that's 9.9 million dead. Call it 10 million dead. That'd be more people than we've ever lost in any war. Maybe even in all the wars we've ever fought combined.

    (By the way, I realize this is simplistic. Here is what epidemiologists would say instead. My point in this post isn't accuracy, but a worst-case scenario. Of course, there are always even worst-case scenarios than this worst-case scenario, but I think this is sufficient to say what I'll say below.)

  2. Yet, as horrible as this would be, and no doubt it'd call for national mourning, it wouldn't spell the end of civilization. Some third world nations have fared just as badly in man-made (e.g. wars) and/or natural disasters.

    European nations have likewise suffered losses like this, at least in their past. Take the generation that came out of World War 1 followed by the Spanish flu. Of course, the current generation wouldn't know anything about such losses.

    The Jews lost a huge percentage of their population in the Holocaust. And the Jews keep this in their collective memory. Never forget!

    We've been fortunate in that we've never had to absorb these kinds of losses in our history. At least not modern history, though perhaps in colonial history various communities did face such losses (e.g. the Pilgrims at Plymouth).

  3. So I think what would spell the end of civilization isn't how many people die from the coronavirus, per se, but how we face or handle things if and when we see thousands then millions start dropping dead, and in the end we see 10 million dead. People's reactions throughout it all could indeed bring our nation to its knees.
  4. A related concern I have is whether we have the individual and community resources to deal with such tremendous losses. I don't mean only physical resources, or psychological resources, but spiritual resources too.

    Throughout most of human history people have had to find comfort in the transcendent, but what does contemporary American culture and society have to offer? What comfort is there for a grieving secular progressive who has lost everyone they love if they never turn to God? How will react if they believe this life is all there is?

    And (maybe I'm wrong about this) Christian influence seemed to have been more pervasive in the thinking and attitudes of the World War 1 and World War 2 generations than it is today. I've heard D. A. Carson say when he was a child even the atheists were "Christian" atheists in the sense that the God they denied was the God of the Bible. However, atheists today will talk about denying all sorts of gods.

  5. On a side note, maybe this is one difference between what I've been saying and what other people have been saying. Like I think even 10 million dead isn't cause for national panic, even if it is horrible, tragic, a call for grief and mourning, and so on, whereas others would think 10 million dead would completely justify panic.
  6. Therefore I guess I'm trying in my own extremely small way to prevent people from panicking because as I've said in the past panic feeds on itself and panic can have a snowball effect and (eventually) even cause us to collapse as a society. Like a self-fulfilling prophecy.

4 comments:

  1. Lots of good points. Though, it's hard to see how societies that are so foundation-less can avoid panicking. Just knowing that panicking is counter-productive seems unlikely to be enough to ensure that it's avoided.

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    1. That's not at all meant as a "doom, we're doomed" prediction. I offer no predictions on what might happen next; it seems very uncertain from many angles.

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    2. Thanks, David! I totally agree with you here. Good point about "foundation-less" societies: I fear you may be right, but of course I hope not, for our sake!

      As far as predictions go, I don't think even the experts truly know what's going to happen. I think they're also flying by the seat of their pants. And I think there are a lot intelligent and insightful laypeople who may be able to sniff out what's really going on and see which way the wind is blowing better than the experts.

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  2. Nobody yet has seen a person who died of this virus get up and start walking around like a zombie, have they?

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