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Friday, January 31, 2020

Impeachment wrapup

A few parting observations on the impeachment charade:

1. It takes a 2/3 vote in the Senate to convict a president. So it would be necessary to peel away many GOP senators to have enough votes to convict Trump. From what I've read, nearly 90% of Republican voters oppose impeachment. Therefore, it would be political suicide for the Senate to convict Trump. As such, the impeachment process initiated in the House was always going to be DOA when it got to the Senate. 

2. I see Democrats accuse Trump of cheating. But Trump didn't cheat in the 2016 election. By contrast, Obama used the IRS to steal the 2012 election, while the Obama administration (e.g. FBI, NSA, DOJ) did all it could to steal the 2016 election for Hillary.

3. Then there's the demand for witnesses. It's a game of chicken: Democrats say they want Bolton to testify. Republicans counter that we'll give you Bolton in exchange for Joe and Hunter Biden. Democrats balk. 

Anyway, Bolton has nothing new to say. The quid-pro-quid, dig up dirt on Biden has been on the table from the get-go. Most Republicans and many independents just don't care. 

On the one hand I think it's an abuse of power for a president to use his position to damage a political rival. On the other hand, there are mitigating factors in this case. There's nothing inherently wrong with digging up dirt on a dirty politician. And it's not coincidental that Trump was seeking information from Ukraine about the Bidens, since Joe's activities regarding Ukraine leave him genuinely vulnerable. 

Presidents can and often do have multiple motives. National interest and political self-interest intertwine. 

4. I believe Democrats have also said they want the "whistleblower to testify. He's been informally I.D'd as Eric Ciaramella. From what I've read, the whistleblower is a partisan apparatchik. And in any event, his knowledge of the phone call is hearsay. It adds nothing to the public record. The only smoking gun is a toy cap gun. 

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