http://www.stratfor.com/weekly/origins-and-implications-scottish-referendum
The idea of Scottish independence has moved from the implausible to the very possible. Whether or not it actually happens, the idea that the union of England and Scotland, which has existed for more than 300 years, could be dissolved has enormous implications in its own right, and significant implications for Europe and even for global stability...
No one can deny that Britain is an entity of singular importance. If that can melt away, what is certain? At a time when the European Union's economic crisis is intense, challenging European institutions and principles, the dissolution of the British union would legitimize national claims that have been buried for decades...
I think that however the vote goes, unless the nationalists are surprised by an overwhelming defeat, the genie is out of the bottle, and not merely in Britain. The referendum will re-legitimize questions that have caused much strife throughout the European continent for centuries, including the 31-year war of the 20th century that left 80 million dead.
Is the dissolution of the former USSR or even the fragmenting of the former Yugoslavia not evidence enough? Even the States are not as united as we would hope and it wasn't too long ago that we demonstrated that in our own Civil War. The outcome of the Civil War is not necessarily a permanent state. But we should note that between the Arab Spring and groups like the Taliban and ISIS/ISIL, our enemies are hardly unified. The Middle East is far more fluid than the World Atlas suggests to Western eyes.
ReplyDeleteTom Peters is fond of citing General Shinseki -- "we are in a brawl with no rules." The various world powers are making things up as they go along. Those who have better historical sensibilities will maybe do better, those who don't, well, they'll be more likely to repeat the mistakes of the past.
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