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Thursday, July 04, 2013

Stratfor: Egypt Military Coup Bodes Ill for Future Stability

What we are seeing is the military in Egypt, which has stable roots going back to Nasser in 1979, forcibly ejecting a democratically-elected president, Mohammed Morsi, of the radical "Muslim Brotherhood".

http://www.stratfor.com/analysis/egypt-military-coup-bodes-ill-future-stability

When I first started reading about this, Stratfor was suggesting that because the the Egyptian military had such continuity, they would lend an element of stability in the face of whatever changes were happening politically. However, with this more recent article, they are suggesting that there will be less stability because of the nature of the change:

The Muslim Brotherhood, which has effectively been thrown out of power, must now figure out how to respond. The group probably will not respond violently, but it will engage in civil unrest that will lead to violence. Though the Brotherhood is unlikely to abandon the path of democratic politics, Morsi's ouster will lead elements from more ultraconservative Salafist groups to abandon mainstream politics in favor of armed conflict.

The overthrow of Egypt's moderate Islamist government undermines the international efforts to bring radical Islamists into the political mainstream in the wider Arab and Muslim world. Ultimately, within the context of Egypt, Morsi's ouster sets a precedent where future presidents can expect to be removed from office by the military in the event of pressure from the masses. In a way, this was set in motion by the ouster of former President Hosni Mubarak, and it does not bode well for the future stability of Egypt.

There are links to other (and newer) articles at the link given above, including statements from Morsi and the Muslim Brotherhood.

1 comment:

  1. This is sheer propaganda. The Muslim Brotherhood is one of the most subversive Islamist groups in the world. Their propaganda machine loves to paint them as moderates when they are anything from it. Read articles from the the Gatestone Institute to get a realist perspective on the Islamist agenda of the Muslim Brotherhood or the the work of Steve Emerson of the Investigative Project on Terrorism. Ever since Morsi's rise to power a few years ago, the Christian Copts in Egypt have been relentlessly persecuted. See Raymond Ibrahim's chronicling of this persecution (one of the contributors at the Gatestone Institute).

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