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Friday, October 12, 2012

Who won the debate?

I didn’t watch the Veep debate. Veep debates are a sideshow. To judge by the pundits, conservatives were somewhat disappointed by the debate. They were expecting Ryan to trounce Biden. But Biden apparently dominated the debate. He muscled his way to the front of the line by throwing sharp elbows. At least, that’s what the pundits indicate (not having seen it myself).

In a campaign debate, there are two ways to judge the winner:

i) You can judge the winner on the merits. Which candidate gave the best answers? Had the better of the argument? Had the best command of the facts? Had the facts on his side?

ii) However, campaign debates are just a temporary means to an end. The objective of the debate is to influence voters to elect your candidate.

By that measure it’s hard to say who won the debate, because you’re not judging for yourself, based on the merits, but trying to guess the impression it made on swing voters. In theory, pollsters might be able to tell us who won the debate, but, of course, the polls have been dubious in this election cycle because they oversample Democrats.

It may be that many swing voters found Biden’sboorish antics off-putting. Or it may make no difference. According to conventional wisdom, voters vote for the top of the ticket. 

8 comments:

  1. Don't know who won, but I have a comment. HOw can two practicing Catholics have such differing views on gay marriage and abortion? I guess the Magisterium is NOT as perspicuous as we thought!

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  2. I'll play the role of RCC apologist: "Actually, the Magisterium is perfectly clear, but both of these men are fallible because we each 'see through a glass darkly'. Thus their differences can be chalked up to simple ignorance or sinful rebellion."

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    1. Actually, the discrepancy is due to the fact that the Magisterium talks loudly but carries a featherduster. It refuses to discipline Catholic politicians like Biden and Sebelius.

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  3. I didn't see the debate either. But I was watching some of the tweets on the debate and lots of people were complaining about Biden interrupting and the moderator being biased... which leads me to believe he lost the debate.

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  4. By "he lost the debate" I mean Ryan.

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  5. I watched the first half, then listened to the second half while working through the new Angry Birds levels.

    I was disappointed with Ryan's performance, but I think that is the case because I was comparing him to Biden. Biden came across very strong ("immature" or "impassioned") and Ryan looked comparatively reserved and sterile. Ryan also didn't have good answers to Biden's accusations that he voted for/against things in the past that he (Ryan) is now complaining about.

    Ryan also has a habit of pausing when speaking, rather like Obama does and I find that irritating.

    The moderator stepped on both of them, but she did so to Ryan more. That might be because he was a little more long winded. She managed to keep the time discrepancy below 2 min (Biden had more), but I don't think that tells the whole story because Biden injected side-comments into a lot of Ryan's answers, especially toward the end.

    I would have liked to see a little more impassioned push-back on Ryan's part.

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  6. I watched the whole debate. As Steve noted, there are different ways of defining who won.

    Ryan didn't do as well as I expected him to. He left a lot of Biden's claims unanswered, as Mr. Fosi mentioned. He was too vague at times, like in his closing remarks. He and Romney need to stop being so vague when they have so many significant details to work with (gas prices, national debt numbers, specific comments Obama has made about the standards we should use to judge a president, etc.). In every debate, Romney and Ryan should be citing the standards Obama applied to Bush and explaining to the audience that Obama has fallen short of his own standards. I don't understand why Romney and Ryan have failed to use so much of the material that's available to them. Despite his reputation for knowing policy details, Ryan was often far too vague. However, overall he was much better than Biden on the issues, behaved better, and came across as more presidential. He did what he needed to do, and he didn't make any highly significant mistakes, despite falling short of the expectations of many conservatives.

    Biden was more aggressive and got more of his points across, but paid a high price for it. I don't remember ever seeing a presidential or vice presidential candidate behave so badly during a debate. To put things in perspective, ask yourself how the mainstream media and Democrats would have reacted if Dick Cheney had behaved the way Joe Biden did. Or what if a Democratic debate opponent had made points against Cheney like the ones Ryan made against Biden? For example, what if unemployment had been as high under the Bush/Cheney administration as it's been under Obama/Biden? And what if Cheney's Democratic opponent had pointed out to Cheney that unemployment was above 10% in Cheney's hometown (as Ryan did with Biden)? I suspect that the media and Democrats would have made it out to be a great moment in presidential debate history, along the lines of Lloyd Bentsen's comment to Dan Quayle about how he's no John Kennedy. Yet, when Ryan makes the point against Biden, it gets so little attention (at least in the debate coverage I've seen so far). Again, to put this debate in perspective, I think it's helpful to ask yourself what the reaction would have been to Dick Cheney if he had behaved the way Biden did. Aside from Biden's many problems on the issues and his factual errors, his behavior was deplorable.

    I think the debate will help Romney and Ryan in poll numbers and voting over the long run, but not as much as the first debate did.

    Notice that the left keeps lowering its standards. In addition to showing so little concern about such high unemployment, such high national debt, etc., they're now showing so little concern about behavior like Biden's. What if a Republican administration had presided over such high unemployment, had a vice presidential candidate who behaved like Joe Biden, etc.? Democrats keep giving themselves less and less room to object to Republican failures in the future. Once they become so accepting of such high unemployment rates, behavior like Biden's, etc., what credibility will they have when criticizing Republicans for lesser failures in the future?

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    1. By the way, I should have said that Scranton unemployment has been "around 10%" rather than "above 10%". I don't think Ryan said "above", and the exact number varies depending on the source you consult. But it's been around 10%.

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