The Long Term Implications Of This Republican Year

I've often been wrong about politics (and other things), but here's what I told an emailer this morning about my sense of the political atmosphere in the United States:

I wanted Specter to win, because he'd be easier to defeat. There is some value in seeing him lose either way, though.

I think the loss of Tim Burns is more significant. I expected that, though some late polls showing Burns ahead made me hopeful that he'd win. I have a low view of American voters in general, and I have a low view of Pennsylvania voters. Somebody like John Murtha can be highly corrupt, yet he and his successor can keep getting elected and reelected again and again.

This is a Republican year, but we should keep in mind that American voters are still largely corrupt and undiscerning. They'll generally support the Republicans this year, but for a mixture of good and bad reasons, and they won't support the Republicans as much as they ought to.

The amount of enthusiasm in many conservative circles, such as on talk radio and among Tea Party activists, is ridiculous. There hasn't been a major change in the heart of the American people. We're just seeing yet another temporary shift to the right. There's a lot of potential for the Republicans to waste the additional power they'll attain this fall, and the American people haven't changed much.

I suspect that the leaders in the Republican party have learned the lessons they needed to learn more than most Americans have. We'll probably see the Republican leadership act in a somewhat more conservative manner, and the (large) minority of Americans who are conservative will be somewhat more discerning and more active than they were previously. But the liberals and moderates will remain highly corrupt and undiscerning, and the temporary Republican leaning of some moderates probably won't last long.